Textile raw materials "on the basis of" prices all the way up, under the full chain bullish market how?

Since the second half of last year, the price of raw materials has soared all the way due to factors such as cutting overcapacity and strained international relations. After the holiday, the "price hike" has surged again with an increase of more than 50%...The pressure from the upstream "price rise tide" is transmitted to the downstream industry, and has different degrees of impact.

Textile industry of cotton, cotton yarn, polyester staple fiber and other raw materials prices have risen sharply, the price is like sitting on a helicopter ladder, the whole textile trade circle is full of price increase notices.Think a import and export company in zhejiang, cotton, cotton, polyester cotton yarn prices, such as the pressure is likely to end (or foreign trade companies).ltd, clothing enterprises, purchasing (including foreign brands and retailers) share in many ways, such as by a certain part of large price alone can't solve, end all parties need to make concessions.

According to a number of industry chain in the middle and lower reaches of the analysis, this round of a variety of raw materials rising tide rise sharply, lasting, some of the fierce rise of raw materials even "on the basis of time", to the high frequency of the afternoon price adjustment quoted in the morning.It is predicted that this round of rising prices of all kinds of raw materials is a systematic price rise in the industrial chain, and will continue for a period of time with the lack of supply of raw materials upstream and the soaring price.

Spandex prices are up nearly 80%

After the Spring Festival holiday, spandex prices continue to rise.According to the latest price monitoring of Zhuochuang Information, the latest price of 55,000 yuan/ton to 57,000 yuan/ton on February 22, the price of spandex has risen nearly 30% in the month, and relative to the low price in August 2020, the price of spandex has risen nearly 80%.

According to the relevant expert analysis, spandex prices from last August began to rise, mainly because of the large-scale increase in downstream demand, and the general low stock of production enterprises, product supply exceeds demand.Moreover, after the Spring Festival, the price of PTMEG, the raw material for the production of spandex, also rose sharply. At present, the price per ton has exceeded 26,000 yuan, which has stimulated the price rise of spandex to a certain extent.

Spandex is a kind of high elastic fiber, with high elongation, good fatigue resistance and other characteristics, widely used in textiles and clothing.In the second half of the year, a large number of overseas textile orders to domestic transfer, the domestic spandex industry constitutes a significant pull.Strong demand, led to the price of spandex this round.

At present, spandex enterprises have been high load started, but spandex products in the short term supply is still difficult to ease the situation.Huafeng Chemical, Taihe New Material and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, the leading domestic spandex enterprises, are preparing for the construction of new production capacity, but these new production capacity cannot be started in the short term: according to the announcement released by Huafeng Chemical recently, it plans to invest 4.36 billion yuan in the next 6 years to increase 300,000 tons/year of different spandex projects;Taihe is currently building 15,000 tons of production capacity in Yantai and 40,000 tons in Ningxia, both of which will start construction around the end of 2021.

Experts said that in addition to supply and demand, the price of upstream raw materials, to a certain extent, to promote the price of spandex.The direct raw material of polyurethane fiber is PTMEG, and the price has risen by about 20% since February. The latest quotation has reached 26,000 yuan/ton, which is a chain reaction caused by the price rise of upstream BDO. On February 23, the latest quotation of BDO was 26,000 yuan/ton, up 10.64% compared with the previous day.As a result, the price of PTMEG and spandex is impossible to stop.

Cotton rose 20.27 per cent year on year

According to the statistics of the business association, as of February 22, the average price of domestic lint spot market quoted 16241 yuan/ton, just five days up 4.12%.That compares with 13,504 yuan per ton in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 20.27%.The recent rapid price rise is, on the one hand, due to the improved macro market atmosphere, the expected recovery of economic stimulus after the epidemic in the United States was brought under control, the rising price of cotton in the United States and the boost of downstream demand.US cotton prices continued to rise on a positive February supply and demand report, strong export sales and a recovery in global cotton demand.On the other hand, this year, textile enterprises started work earlier, after the Spring Festival another round of inventory replenishment, order demand has accelerated.At the same time, the domestic market polyester staple fiber, nylon, spandex and many other textile raw material prices rose together, to promote the effect of cotton prices.

Internationally, US cotton production in 2020/21 was significantly reduced. According to the latest USDA report, this year's US cotton production was reduced by nearly 1.08 million tons to 3.256 million tons compared to the previous year.USDA Outlook Forum significantly increased the global cotton consumption and total output in 2021/22, and at the same time significantly reduced the global cotton ending inventory, in which the cotton demand of China, India and other textile giants was again increased.The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its official target cotton planting acreage on March 31.Brazil's cotton planting schedule is behind, and production forecasts are lowered.India's cotton production is expected to be 28.5 million bales, down 500,000 bales year on year, China's 27.5 million bales, down 1.5 million bales, Pakistan's 5.8 million bales, up 1.3 million bales, and West Africa's 5.3 million bales, up 500,000 bales year on year.

Futures, ICE cotton futures rose to the highest level in more than two and a half years, continued good demand, grain and cotton competition for land, peripheral market optimism and other factors continue to trigger speculation.On February 23, Zheng cotton main contract 2105 opened price of 16,325 yuan/ton, settlement price of 16,405 yuan/ton, hit a high of 16,500 yuan/ton.The domestic cotton market is in the stage of gradual recovery, the initiative of the downstream pick up is not high, mainly due to the cotton resource offer price significantly increased and yarn enterprises have their own pre-holiday reserve supply available, it is expected that after the Lantern Festival market trading will gradually return to normal.In the thirteenth week of 2021 (February 22 - February 26), the maximum price of Xinjiang cotton wheel entry bidding is 16,254 yuan/ton (discount standard grade 3128B), up 414 yuan/ton compared with last week.

Since mid-february, jiangsu, henan, shandong and other cotton yarn or concentrated in the 500-1000 yuan/ton, more than 50 s and the high comb, combed cotton yarn's gains generally reached 1000-1300 yuan/ton, the current domestic cotton textile factory, fabrics, to return to work and production rate of the clothing business enterprise has been restored to 80-90%, and a few mills have begun to make an inquiry, purchasing raw materials such as cotton, polyester staple fiber.With the arrival of domestic and foreign trade orders from March to April, there are still some contracts to catch up with before the festival.In the peripheral market, the support of fundamentals, ICE, Zheng cotton resonance, and the downstream weaving, fabric enterprises and clothing factories are expected to purchase from the end of February to early March, for cotton yarn, polyester cotton yarn price rose sharply, textile and clothing enterprises need to accelerate the pressure of cost growth to the downstream terminal transfer.

Business analysts believe that the multiple positive background, domestic cotton prices all the way up.With the domestic textile industry gold three silver four season is coming, the market is generally optimistic about the future market, but also need to beware of the new crown impact and market enthusiasm to cool the pressure brought by.

Polyester prices are soaring

Polyester filament prices soared just days after the holiday began.Due to the impact of the epidemic of new coronary pneumonia, polyester filament price began to plummet from February 2020, and hit bottom on April 20. Since then, polyester filament price has been fluctuating at a low level and has been hovering at a historical low price for a long time.

Since the second half of 2020, due to "import inflation", the prices of various raw materials in the textile market have begun to rise, with polyester filament rising by more than 1,000 yuan/ton, viscose staple fiber by 1,000 yuan/ton, and acrylic staple fiber by 400 yuan/ton.

According to incomplete statistics, since February, nearly 100 enterprises have collectively announced price increases for dozens of chemical fiber raw materials, including viscose, polyester yarn, spandex, nylon and dye, due to rising prices of upstream raw materials.

As of February 20 this year, polyester filament has rebounded to near the low point of 2019.If the rally continues, it will reach the normal price of polyester in previous years.

From the current quotation of PTA and MEG, the main raw materials of polyester, in the context of the international oil price returning to $60, PTA and MEG still have a certain upside in the future quotation.Thus can judge, polyester price still exists the possibility of rising.